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The euro remains resilient despite the ECB sharing its concern for a strong euro and consideration for further stimulus.

Will this week’s releases cause retracements for the euro?

I’ve got a shortlist of the potential catalysts you need to watch out for:

Lower-tier economic releases

  • Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment (Oct 13, 9:00 am GMT) printed at 73.9 in September
  • German ZEW economic sentiment (Oct 13, 9:00 am GMT) to dip from 77.4 to 70.0 in October
  • Industrial production (Oct 14, 9:00 am GMT) seen falling from 4.1% to -2.0% in August
  • Final headline CPI (Oct 16, 9:00 am GMT) to be revised from -0.4% to 0.1%?
  • Core inflation (Oct 16, 9:00 am GMT) to slow down from 0.4% to 0.2%
  • Eurozone trade surplus (Oct 16, 9:00 am GMT) expected to narrow down from 27.9B EUR to 15.1B EUR in August
  • (Virtual) IMF meetings to start on Friday

Overall EUR and CHF demand

  • EUR has been retaining its gains despite hints of currency intervention and more easing from the European Central Bank (ECB)
  • Significant downside surprises from the region’s economic releases could cause retracements for EUR’s major pairs
  • The EU Summit starts on Thursday. Watch out for headlines over Brexit, as well as possible sanctions on Russia, and Turkey
  • No major catalysts from Switzerland this week, which means CHF will likely serve as safe haven for EUR and USD for most of the week

Technical snapshot

  • The euro gained the most against USD, JPY, and NZD in the last seven days
  • EUR has lost value against GBP, CHF, AUD, and CAD in the same time period
EUR Forex Pairs Performance from MarketMilk
EUR Forex Pairs Performance from MarketMilk
  • Stochastic is flagging EUR/USD and EUR/JPY’s “overbought” conditions
  • EUR/CAD may be “oversold” on the daily time frame
EUR Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
EUR Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
EUR Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
EUR Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
  • CHF has lost value against AUD and CAD in the last seven days
  • The franc gained the most against its fellow safe havens
CHF Forex Pairs Performance from MarketMilk
CHF Forex Pairs Performance from MarketMilk
  • EMAs show CHF’s short and long-term bullish trends against JPY, USD, and EUR
  • GBP/CHF and CAD/CHF may soon see retracements or a reversal on the daily time frame
CHF Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
CHF Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read EUR & CHF’s price recap for October 5 – 9!