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The clock is ticking for EU and U.K. negotiators as their October 15 deadline looms.

Will we see some form of a deal this week?

Check out the top headlines that can affect the pound’s intraweek trends:

Brexit negotiations

  • European Union (EU) leaders will meet on October 15 to assess any progress on a Brexit deal
  • U.K. PM Boris Johnson has hinted that he’s prepared to walk away from the negotiations if there’s no deal by October 15
  • Word around is that both camps are inching towards a deal, but that European Union chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier needs a bit more concessions from the U.K. side before entering the more intensive “tunnel talks”
  • Failure to make deals would mean a messy Brexit where businesses and citizens are unsure about their rights and responsibilities after the year ends

Labor market numbers (Oct 13, 6:00 am GMT)

  • The unemployment rate jumped from 3.9% to 4.1%, the highest since October 2018
  • Unemployment claimants rose by 73,700 in August, which is still high but better than the 99,500 claimants that markets had expected
  • Average earnings dipped at a slower rate (from -1.2% to -1.0%) for the month
  • While the numbers were weak, they were still better than analysts had expected so traders still bought GBP until the start of the U.S. session
  • Analysts expect claimants to dip to 72,000 in September
  • The unemployment rate could inch higher to 4.3%
  • A net of 60,000 workers are expected to have lost jobs for the month

Technical snapshot

  • GBP has gained value against USD, NZD, and EUR in the last seven days
  • GBP/CHF, GBP/AUD, and GBP/CAD saw the heaviest losses in the same time period
GBP Forex Pairs Performance from MarketMilk
GBP Forex Pairs Performance from MarketMilk
  • GBP/USD, GBP/NZD, and GBP/JPY have hit Stochastic’s “overbought” status on the daily time frame
  • GBP/CAD remains in neutral territory
GBP Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
GBP Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • The pound was most volatile against the Kiwi, dollar, and the yen on the daily time frame
GBP Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
GBP Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read GBP’s price recap for October 5 – 9!